His predictions have been published in the likes ofThe Hollywood Reporter,The New York Times, andTheWashington Post.
I got into this back during the 2011 Oscar season and the Oscars in February 2012.
So the gist of it is, I look at Oscar data from previous years.
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I have the scores of each movie on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic, and so on and so on.
Anything that I can put into a number, I save on my computer.
So maybe in one category, its the guild awards that are the best predictor.
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And then in another category, its the BAFTAs that are the best predictor, and so on.
That gives me a set of weights, how much weight to put on each of these predictors.
So they have a precursor category for just about every Oscar category.
If were talking Best Picture/Best Director, then the Directors Guild and Producers Guild [Awards].
A lot of these guilds are very useful in their category.
The one thing that I looked at was the box office.
The box office, it turned out, was basically a useless predictor for the Oscars.
And that was surprising.
So that actually does not factor into my model.
A lot of the guild awards, were only talking two or three decades.
And that means that the data from before those precursor awards really isnt all that useful to me.
You have the Eddie nominations for film editing.The Irishmangot that,Once Upon a Time in Hollywoodwas left out.
And then youve got a number of movies that have been getting almost all of the requisite nominations.
SoParasiteandMarriage StoryandJojo RabbitandJoker, all of these movies are kind of hovering around that top tier.
Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywoodisavailable nowvia BearManor Media.
