Can Rosamund Pike and Alan Kim break into the race?

to pan out across all 23 categories.

Beyond them, then, who makes it through?

Nomadland

Searchlight Pictures

(Note we haven’t seen less than eight or more than nine under this system.)

They’re also very similar films, critically acclaimed stage adaptations largely confined to a single room.

(Though last year, they foresaw all nine.)

Nomadland

Joshua Richards/Searchlight Pictures

Still, BAFTA elevated the film to great heights overall (it scored six nods).

That brings us to the fifth slot.

If not for his candidacy, this would be a race between similarly assured nomineesRiz AhmedandAnthony Hopkins.

Promising Young Woman

Focus Features

That leaves two slots.

Which of course leaves launch the possibility of an upset or two.

He’s the beating heart of that film, so he’ll be getting a share of votes.

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Chadwick Boseman

(L to R) Glynn Turman, Chadwick Boseman, Michael Potts, and Colman Domingo in ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’.David Lee/Netflix

For now, though, we’re sticking with SAG.

All will certainly be nominated here.

Strathairn hasn’t campaigned, however, leaving him in the background.

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Amazon Studios

We like the chances ofAlan Kim, the young superstar who steals every scene ofMinari.

Expect mainstaysMinariandMankto round the field out, along with the well-liked Pixar adventureSoul.

JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Glen Wilson/Warner Bros.

Nomadland

Searchlight Pictures

PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Merie Weismiller Wallace / Focus Features